Tamworth population growth falls short, prompting concern from local MP

According to current projections from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment (DPE), Tamworth's population is set to grow by a modest 0.69 per cent by the year 2041, well below the state's 1 per cent overall average.

The DPE and other state departments use these projections to plan the delivery of grants and public infrastructure, such as hospitals, police resources, and building new schools.

Member for Tamworth Kevin Anderson said he's concerned the state government is "sleepwalking towards a significant public infrastructure backlog".

"Tamworth Regional Council's Blueprint 100 outlines the goal of a 100,000 population by 2041, but there is a major discrepancy between that goal, and the NSW Planning department's predicted population of just 71,956 residents by 2041," Mr Anderson said.

When asked whether the local council's plans for growth affect the DPE's population projections, a spokesperson told the Leader the department contacted all councils for information when the projections were being reviewed in 2022 under the former Coalition government.

"The Tamworth Regional Council's 'Blueprint 100' did not provide sufficient detail to adjust the projection assumptions," a NSW Government spokesperson said.

"However, as actions outlined in the strategy are implemented, future updates to the NSW population projections will then account for any emerging shifts in Tamworth's population dynamics."

The spokesperson also confirmed that NSW Crown Lands is continuing to work with Tamworth Regional Council and the Local Aboriginal Lands Council on freeing up 65 allotments for houses in North Tamworth with "with further potential to incorporate adjoining land" near Tamworth hospital.

That project, alongside other council initiatives to boost housing supply, is expected to have a positive impact on when the DPE's population projections are reviewed again in 2025.

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While the state government uses DPE's projections for planning purposes, they are far from the only reputable source of forecasts for population growth.

According to demographics consulting firm ID - short for Informed Decisions - Tamworth's population is expected to reach 80,769 by 2041, with North Tamworth and Moore Creek leading the charge.

While population growth is determined by a wide variety of factors, one major hindrance to the region's growth is the fact that more domestic migrants are leaving than coming in.

While Tamworth is attracting many people from overseas and Sydney, the city is also losing people to nearby urban centres like Newcastle, Brisbane, and the Central Coast.

Tamworth's local MP said he's confident the regional centre can get back on track to meet its 100,000-strong population target, pointing to several housing developments currently in the works as evidence that the region's capacity for growth is being underestimated.

"Tamworth is a city with a bright future, and that future is underpinned by significant housing developments in the Moore Creek and Arcadia areas, as well as industrial developments in the Global Gateway Park," Mr Anderson said.

Mr Anderson called for planning Minister Paul Scully to visit Tamworth to see for himself "the real, on the ground development our region is experiencing," and said the state government should plan for the region's future "appropriately".

"There's a 28,044-person discrepancy in the figures - the current population of Armidale," he said.

"If the NSW Government's planning projections don't marry up with the Council's plans for growth, our region's essential services in healthcare, police, education and more are going to fall behind."

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