Tamworth benefits from rural migration but loses more to cities

Statistics analysing annual trends in people moving to and from Australia's regional areas shows migration to Tamworth from the regions is up 84.4 per cent, but is being outweighed by large outflows to urban areas.

Despite attracting large numbers of new residents from Sydney, the last year has seen many of Tamworth's residents move to other urban centres like Newcastle, Brisbane, and the Central Coast.

The statistics show a reversal from last year's figures, which had positive inflows from both cities and regional areas.

"This means that Tamworth's Net Internal Migration was negative - after a positive Net Internal Migration result in the 12 months to September 2022," a spokesperson from Barton-based research firm Regional Australia Institute (RAI) told the Leader.

While overseas migration has been propping up the area's population numbers, the loss of domestic migrants means Tamworth is missing out on opportunities to fill skill shortages and bolster its economic growth.

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The new statistics were released as part of the Regional Movers Index, a quarterly report developed by the RAI and Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

A major finding from their research is Regional NSW has overtaken regional Queensland as the most desirable location for metropolitan movers.

"Overall that trend from our cities to our regions continues on a net basis. We're seeing that movement at around 12 per cent above pre-pandemic levels," Commonwealth Bank Regional and Agribusiness Executive General Manager, Paul Fowler, said.

But Tamworth is bucking this trend.

RAI Chief Economist, Dr Kim Houghton said the biggest drivers of domestic migration continue to be job opportunities, housing affordability, and the attractiveness of the regional lifestyle.

He said a big reason reason some areas of NSW are attracting more metropolitan movers than others is the availability and affordability of housing.

"House prices are really a big driver in all of this. The job market is very strong across all of regional Australia, so what people are looking for is that combination of local amenity and affordability that are available to go with the jobs that are available," Dr Houghton said.

Tamworth is currently experiencing a housing shortage, which poses a threat to the local council's push to accelerate population growth towards 100,000 people.

In response, Tamworth council is seeking to boost the supply of new available homes with several initiatives including building on crown land and developing a huge 2350-house estate in Hillvue.

The problem, Dr Houghton said, is that increasing the supply of housing takes time.

"It's very cyclical, we saw the same pattern with Lismore and Byron and those hot spot destinations in 2021. People surge in, places fill up, and then it takes a long time for supply of available housing to catch up. Eventually they do tend to catch up and migration bounces back once that new supply is available," he said.

The RAI will offer more insights into regional migration at the NSW component of its national event series, Regions Rising, in Orange on Thursday, November 16.

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