La Nina tipped to continue through 'unpredictable' Tamworth summer

But a local weather guru tipped the season was likely to be "unpredictable" in the face of monsoon conditions.

The bureau's annual climate statement, released last week, shows 2021 was the first year in five without any large parts of the country experiencing drought conditions.

Twelve months of la nina rainfall finally filled dams in Tamworth and watered crops region-wide, but also flooded scores of communities.

The bureau forecasts slightly above-average rainfall will persist for the next three months until April, but will not break any records.

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Tamworth also has a 12 per cent chance of unusually cool and a 45 per cent chance of above median temperatures over the next three months, it predicted.

Local weather guru and Tamworth Regional Weather founder David Farrenden said the bureau could easily be wrong in what is likely to be a very unpredictable season.

"The monsoon can do a lot of different things," he said.

"The bureau ... half the time they're wrong. It all just depends on what the monsoon does. We are seeing next week I think it is and the week after there's going to be a little action coming in with cyclones and so forth."

Last week's Queensland cyclone left Tamworth unusually humid, despite never going anywhere near the city, he said.

Mr Farrenden believes that, with all the climate climate drivers trending towards a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, la nina is likely to come to and end by March or April.

But the city might still get some big thunderstorms in the meantime.

"There is still a chance of flooding with all our dams full," he said.

"If you get the run at the right areas you could see further flooding. January is usually our wettest month. Anywhere from January to March there is a chance of flooding, with all our dams full."

The bureau's three-month forecast predicts less than a 30 per cent chance of Tamworth experiencing unusually wet or dry conditions. The city is likely to receive above the median of 155mm of rain before April, with a 25 per cent chance of more than 200mm.

Last year was the coolest in almost a decade for the country, according to the bureau's annual climate statement.

Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist Dr Simon Grainger said the country's mean temperature was 0.56 °C above the 1961 to 1990 climate reference period, was the 19th warmest year since national records began in 1910, but also the coolest year since 2012.

A full report on Australia's weather and climate of 2021 will be released in February.

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