The Bureau's season outlook, released on Thursday, estimates the city has an 80 per cent chance of above average Spring rainfall.

Tamworth has a 60 per cent change of at least 200mm rain by November, the Bureau forecasts.

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The city's dams have already been buoyed by months of good rainfall, after years without a drop.

Chaffey Dam, which hit one-quarter full last week, was at 25.4 per cent full yesterday according to Water NSW.

The city's main dam now has enough water to allow a tentative reduction in water restrictions at the end of the month.

Split Rock Dam remained 5 per cent full. In January the massive dam was less than 1 per cent full.

Keepit Dam was 24 per cent full as at 11am on Thursday, according to Water NSW.

By the time restrictions drop on August 31, Tamworth will have spent 11 months on the highest-level water restrictions. The new rules will allow residents 200L of water per day.

The Bureau's Manager of Climate Operations Dr Andrew Watkins said their wet outlook was driven by modeling indicating a La Nina could develop in the Spring.

"We're starting to see that in the Pacific with a La Nina beginning to take shape, and we are also seeing some changes in the Indian Ocean, which may also boost the chance of rain during Spring."

Higher than average Spring temperatures are predicted across NSW. The Bureau outlook forecasts it is "likely" Tamworth will exceed on average its mean maximum temperature of 21 degrees for September and "very likely" not to consistently dip below the minimum of 6 degrees.

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