While the region is in for four seasons in as many days this week, one local weather watcher has made a bold prediction about the possibility of a flood.
Weather watcher David Farrenden has forecast a grim summer outlook, although he has also left the window ajar for a freak flood event, after taking some cues from mother nature herself.
The founder of the Tamworth and Region Weather page said the region will have to rely on storms rather than widespread events throughout summer, as the country settles into “an El Nino pattern with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole reading.”
“That means dry and hot conditions,” he said.
“We are in storm season though, and there is more moisture around so we just need to get the right instability to see storms form in the right areas.”
Those hot and dry conditions can also lead to increased cyclone activity, and Mr Farrenden has been noticing small changes that might indicate an incoming flood, which is traditionally how droughts conclude.
“I haven’t had ants in my house since before the 2008 flood, and this week I have noticed them in the kitchen again, while the green ants out the back have vacated their nest and taken up residence under the concrete slab of the back verandah,” he said.
“The emus at the marsupial park are sitting on eggs, I have seen roos with joeys in their pouches, I have been hearing frogs again, and the Timbumburi Creek is running a bit.
“That could indicate a flood – animals and nature always know a long time before we do.”
Mr Farrenden said that if one of those cyclones develops off the coast of NSW and moves inland it could lead to a mass rain event, it is also one of our only hopes after the Bureau’s recent forecast of an extremely hot summer.
“Cyclone Debbie caused a lot of rain around Moree, and that is what we need to happen,” Mr Farrenden said.
“I can’t see any widespread events happening, but storms are a bit more random – we have to rely on storms for rain over summer.”
This week the region will swelter through two days of temperatures above the 37 degree mark on Monday and Tuesday, before expecting up to 25 mm of rain on Wednesday, followed by temperatures almost halving on Thursday, to a minimum of just eight degrees and maximum of 21.