The Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for August to October outlook, issued last week, shows no relief from dry conditions.
The prediction for most of Australia was for warmer than average days and nights and drier than average conditions.
“Forecast warmer and drier conditions suggest that much of eastern and southern mainland Australia are less likely to see widespread respite in the coming season from current dry conditions,” the statement said.
While the bureau reported the El Niño–Southern Oscillation was currently neutral, climate models indicate an El Niño was likely to develop before the end of 2018. El Niño typically means below average rainfall during winter-spring for northern and eastern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole was also neutral with about half the international climate models indicating a positive IOD event could develop in the coming months. A positive IOD typically means below average rainfall during winter-spring for southern and central Australia.
On top of this, cooler than average waters to the northwest of Australia may change the path of weather systems coming from the west, often meaning less rain over the central and southeast areas.
The Bureau's model suggests that the westerly winds (and associated rain systems) that typically flow along the south of Australia at this time of year are likely to be weaker than average in the southeast of the country. Together, these factors were likely to influence the warmer and drier outlook for August to October.