Recent research predicts a dire future for farmers in the Murray-Darling Basin.
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Eastern Australia could soon see mega droughts that last for more than 20 years, according to new modelling from the Australian National University (ANU).
The worst part, according to ANU researchers, is their findings stand even without factoring in climate change.
"One of the problems with understanding protracted droughts in Australia is that our climate observations since the 1900s give us only a handful of examples to work with," co-lead author Dr Georgy Falster said.
"This isn't representative of the worst-case scenarios that are possible just through natural climate variations."
The researchers used multiple models to simulate droughts that occurred during the past millennium - from the year 850 to 2000 - to determine how they might change in the future.
Their findings suggest the risk of long-term droughts are much higher than previously understood, though narrowing down when the next megadrought will come is a beast of its own.
"In this study, we paid particular attention to the Murray-Darling Basin. As the largest agricultural region of Australia, it's important to know how bad droughts in this region could be," Dr Falster said.
"Thinking about when we might expect to see a 20-year-long drought in the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia, this varies a lot. We could see a megadrought occur every 150 years or 1000 years."
Farmers pull their boots on
Professor Nerilie Abram, also from ANU, said the basin faces a double-whammy as the area is also expected to have less rainfall in the future.
"It is likely that changes to drought intensity could still arise as climate change continues to worsen," Professor Abram said.
President of NSW Farmers, Xavier Martin, told the Leader he's confident farmers will match the challenges that face them, changing climate or no.
"First and foremost, farmers pull their boots on every morning and get out the door to get the job done," Mr Martin said.
He said NSW Farmers members are sceptical of both the impact Australia has on climate change and the impact the changing climate will have on Australia.
However, he also said there's no harm in preparing for the worst-case scenario, especially when it comes to multi-year droughts.
Mr Martin called for a fodder stockpile scheme similar to a funding arrangement currently provided by the Australian Government.
"We need a prudential fodder scheme - a national one - that mimics the farm management deposit scheme but instead of reserving cash, reserves fodder," he said.
The Liverpool Plains farmer said a modern nation needs a way to feed its flocks during times of scarcity so they don't put extra pressure on the landscape during times of drought.
Time is of the essence
Farmers welcomed the state government's low-interest loans scheme for drought preparation in November.
But in the face of potential decades-long megadroughts, many are advocating for longer-term solutions to protect the integrity of the agricultural industry.
And it's not just the business-side of things that has people worried.
University of New England researcher and PhD candidate Kisani Upward said the economic impact of a struggling farm industry would be a huge blow to regional mental health.
"We already understand how severe that last period of drought was. We had increases in mental health presentations, suicidal ideation, and people being forced out of the farming industry," Ms Upward said.
"If we go into another period of drought that's even longer, we just can't determine how severe that will impact mental health."
The Tamworth-based scholar says state and federal governments should start funding locally-organised programs for creating resilient, self-empowered communities before it's too late.
"It's so imperative that we start looking at doing that right now while we're still in a pretty good state," Ms Upward said.
"We've got so many people here in Tamworth that could do the work, it just needs to be valued and funded."