It’s Round 14 of the Super Rugby season, and the last week of domestic rugby before we take a break for the international window.
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Last week, readers were treated to TWO Early Bets that went on to salute with ease – the Crusaders to cover the start against the Waratahs, with the Chiefs and Crusaders in a multi.
Anyone who took the good oil about those two selections started the weekend with a pocketful of cash and a return on investment of about 170%!
The winners look likely to keep flowing this weekend, so if you’re planning on having a bet on the rugby, you simply cannot be without the Super Rugby Set.
Here are the big questions, and a few early bets, for Week 14.
Who will win the Australian conference?
With only four games left to play in the 2016 Super Rugby season (one of them before the international break, and three after) there is only one point between the NSW Waratahs (30 points) at the top of the Australian conference, and the ACT Brumbies in second (29 points).
The Melbourne Rebels remain a mathematical chance to take top spot, seven points off the lead, but they would need to win every game from here and hope the teams above them falter.
It’s not going to happen.
Even though the Tahs are currently in top spot, the bookies are all but ready to hand the title to the Brumbies – they are $1.20 to win the conference, ahead of the Waratahs at $4.00 and the Rebels at $201.00.
The discrepancy in the market might seem strange, until you consider how easy the Brumbies run home is.
In the final weeks of the season they play the Sunwolves (H), the Reds (H), the Blues (A) and the Force (H).
Those four teams are currently ranked 17th, 13th, 11th and 16th on the table and the Brumbies will be fully expecting to beat all of them.
Meanwhile, the Waratahs are stuck playing the Chiefs (H), the Sunwolves (A), the Hurricanes (H) and the Blues (A). That’s the teams ranked 1st, 17th, 5th, and 11th.
The Waratahs really need to win all four of those games to be sure of topping the conference, and that’s not going to be easy.
Early Bet: The Waratahs welcome the Chiefs to Sydney this weekend as $2.35 outsiders, but they are hard to beat at home and will be desperate. Can’t ignore that sort of value.
Who will finish with the 2016 Super Rugby wooden spoon?
It’s the prize no-one wants to win, and it looks as though the dreaded wooden spoon will be headed to one of the new Super Rugby franchises in 2016.
As it stands, the Kings are last on 4 points (having won only one game) behind the Sunwolves on 9 points (also having won only one game, but having accrued a few bonus points) and the Force on 11 points (with two wins for the season, but none at home).
According to the bookies this one is all over too.
They have the Kings as unbackable “favorites” at $1.17, with the Sunwolves at $4.50 and Australia’s own Western Force at $51.00.
It’s difficult to argue with the bookies’ assessment of this one.
The Kings have been terrible all season, will need to win at least one more game (and probably two) to drag themselves off the bottom of the table.
Their run home looks like this: Jaguares (H), Highlanders (H), Lions (A) and Stormers (A).
The Kings aren’t winning any of those, and they will be our wooden spooners in 2016. And deservedly so.
Early Bet: The Sunwolves travel to Canberra to play the Brumbies with a massive 27.5 points start. The Japanese were good in Brisbane last weekend (losing by just 10) and I think that’s far too generous.
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