The bookies might have sitting Nationals MP and Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce as the favourite, but election analysts also suggest Mr Joyce needs to get a huge slab of the primary votes to ensure he gets over the line.

Mr Joyce is up against former independent member Tony Windsor in a fight for their political lives – but there are also another eight candidates in one of the biggest federal fields in this seat ever. 

To some extent, the fierce battle between the former MP and his successor has overshadowed the others who represent traditional parties in Labor and the Greens, but also other smaller micro parties. The primary vote will be a telling indicator.

Analysts have calculated Mr Joyce might not pick up enough preference votes to give him a solid push, but his political enemy will, so primaries are critical. 

See also: Inverell pre-poll also too close to call

The New England vote is likely to be the closest result we’ve seen since 2001, when the then-new independent Mr Windsor, jumping from his state parliamentary tenure after 10 years, tilted one-term Nationals MP Stuart St Clair from the federal seat. 

Windsor that year took more than 45 per cent of the votes against St Clair’s 38 per cent, and if polling, and the pundits on the street, reflect the reality, the voter turnout in this poll could be similar – although observers suggest the reverse result.

Mr Joyce’s camp was confident enough, “but not cocky”, yesterday, while the Windsor campaign team remained upbeat.

Mr Windsor on Thursday had suggested it was too close to call, with polling showing the margin of error the difference.

The two protagonists will vote at their “homeland” centres today, Mr Joyce at Woolbrook and Mr Windsor at Werris Creek, but both of them have extensive travel schedules as they criss-cross an electorate that spans more than 66,000 square kilometres – and stretches from the border nearly to Muswellbrook.

Polling places open from 8am today and close at 6pm.

At the close of pre-polling yesterday at 6pm, numbers were on trend to perhaps get close to some 40,000 early voters.

The final day of pre-polling saw a big turnout at the early voting centres in Tamworth, Armidale, Inverell, Tenterfield and Muswellbrook.

Another 4281 voters did their pre-polling across New England on Thursday – the biggest day to date – but were expected to be beaten comprehensively by the final Friday voter rush.

Up to the close of voting on Thursday night, more than 12,300 early voters had cast their vote at the Darling St centre.