A ReachTEL poll of 712 residents in the seat of New England conducted on January 11 found 32.2 per cent would vote for Mr Windsor as their first preference if he returned, compared with 39.5 per cent for Mr Joyce.

The poll obtained by Guardian Australia found 11.2 per cent would vote for Labor and 4.6 per cent would vote for the Greens, with 6.2 per cent nominating others, including other independents with 5.1 per cent undecided.

The Palmer United Party attracted just 1.3 per cent.

The polling results suggest if the majority of Labor and Greens preferences flowed towards Mr Windsor, Mr Joyce – who has been Nationals leader for less than three weeks – could lose New England.

When the undecided respondents were asked which way they were leaning, 30.6 per cent were leaning towards the National, 19 per cent were leaning towards Labor and 16.3 per cent were leaning towards Windsor.

Of the remainder, 29.1 per cent of undecided respondents were leaning towards others including other independents, 2.8 per cent were leaning towards the Greens and 2.1 per cent were leaning towards the Palmer United Party.

Mr Joyce has held the seat since Mr Windsor retired in 2013, citing health and family reasons.

At the time Mr Windsor’s critics accused him of running from local anger over his decisions to side with Julia Gillard’s minority government in 2010.

Mr Joyce gave up his Queensland senate spot to contest New England prior to Mr Windsor announcing his retirement.

But it is looking increasingly likely that Mr Windsor will run against Mr Joyce, though the 65-year-old told Guardian Australia on Sunday night that “I am not over the line yet”.

If Windsor runs, it would set up competition around local and national issues, including climate change, drought sustainability, the National Broadband Network, renewables and land usage – particularly the $1.2 billion Shenhua Watermark coal mine on the Liverpool Plains.

A group of local farmers and Indigenous groups have fiercely opposed the mine, but it has received support from the NSW National party and some townspeople.

The mine received approval from the NSW Baird government and the federal government under its environmental powers.

Last week, the Land and Environment court ruled in Shenhua’s favour in a case brought by the local Landcare group and the NSW environmental defenders office regarding the loss of koala habitat.

A local Liverpool Plains farmer, Rosemary Nankivell, has organised a GetUp! petition urging Windsor to run for the seat on the grounds the Coalition was trying to devolve environmental powers to the states.

“The Coalition have been doing their darndest to skip over these safeguards, devolve approvals to the states, and make it easier for projects to be app- roved,” Ms Nankivell said.

“Regardless of what he says about standing up for the Plains, Barnaby Joyce has been silent, allowing these measures to be scuttled”.

The mine was given conditional approval by Environment Minister Greg Hunt after a review by the Independent Expert Scientific Committee under the water trigger established by Mr Windsor and the Gillard government.

At that time, Joyce suggested the “world had gone mad” and said he had done everything in his power to stop the mine.

Mr Joyce has consistently said Mr Windsor was free to run but has criticised the GetUp! petition as an “indictment of Australia’s political freedom”.

“Everybody knows that GetUp! is a lobbyist group from the left and they are going to push for candidates from their political spectrum,” he said.

“It is their right to support independents against the Coalition.”