In one of the strongest public statements yet from a senior minister, the straight-talking Mr Joyce said the government risked being a “one-termer” unless it could arrest the slide soon.

Results from an Essential Research poll, released this week, found 47 per cent of respondents thought Labor was likely to win the 2016 election, with just 27 per cent tipping a Coalition win.

On the issue of Tony Abbott’s leadership, 51 per cent said it was “unlikely” he would still lead the government to the election, while 29 per cent said it was “likely”. The ALP held a two-party preferred lead of 7.5 per cent.

“I’m not a fool, we’re doing it tough,” Mr Joyce told Tamworth radio station 88.9FM this week. “We’re never supposed to say this, but if we don’t turn it around we’ll lose the next election.”

He blamed the government’s austerity budget for much of the voter discontent.

When asked to sum up Mr Abbott in a few words, Mr Joyce said: “honest, hardworking, hard to sell”.

Tamworth Country Labor branch president Joe Hillard said the poll results were heartening but it would be foolish to assume Labor was over the line in 2016.

“It’s promising for Labor but an election is a long way off,” Mr Hillard said.

“There’s been a lot of negative publicity lately about government policies and internal conflict in the Liberals, a lot of it concerning the prime minister’s office.

“There’s also been a lot of publicity about the government’s failure to sell the budget.

“That is all affecting the polls.”