METEOROLOGICAL experts have been tracking a band of warm water in the Pacific Ocean this year, with signs pointing to the resurgence of an El Niño event by the end of the year.
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Michael Glasson of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Moree field office said the chances of an El Niño affecting the local and surrounding region were about 50 per cent.
The weather prediction has been the cause of some trepidation among meteorologists and farmers alike, with the climate phenomenon typically foreboding extended bouts of hot, dry weather for much of eastern Australia.
Mr Glasson summarised predictions for the coming season and said September, October and November were shaping up to be dry months, but that if south-eastern and inland NSW experienced an El Niño, it would likely be a weak event, given the lateness of the year.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular weather phenomenon, occurring about every two to seven years, and is driven by climatic changes in the Pacific Ocean.
As warmer waters arrive in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, easterly trade winds weaken, resulting in a reduction of cloud coverage over eastern Australia.
Mr Glasson said the previous year has been one of the driest on record in many parts of the state.