Labor's 43 per cent 2030 emissions reduction target is a step closer to becoming law after the Greens agreed to support the government's signature climate change bill, despite likening it to "bringing a bucket of water to a house fire".
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But the Albanese government still needs to win over one more Senate crossbencher, putting ACT independent David Pocock in a strong negotiating position in what shapes as his first major decision since entering parliament.
Senator Pocock has described the bill as a "big step forward" but wants to hold further talks with the government before guaranteeing his support.
The Canberra Times understands Jacqui Lambie and her colleague Tammy Tyrrell are also keen to negotiate before confirming their position.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is on the brink of chalking up his first major legislative win of the new parliament, after Greens leader Adam Bandt used a speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday to confirm the party would support the government's climate bill.
"It's a good day for Australia, it's a good day for our economy, it's a good day for our future," Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said.
"The climate wars may or may not be over, but they're certainly in retreat under this government."
The Greens had the numbers to kill off the bill in the Senate after Peter Dutton's Coalition decided to vote against it.
But in a decision which avoids a re-run of their 2009 call to sink Kevin Rudd's emissions trading scheme, Mr Bandt said the Greens would support Labor's targets despite arguing they are insufficient to avert catastrophic climate change.
The decision comes after Labor agreed to some tweaks to the bill, including clarifying that the 43 per cent target was a floor on its ambition, and including provisions which would make it harder for government agencies to invest in fossil fuel projects.
Mr Bandt said the Greens had improved a "weak bill", which he said amounted to "bringing a bucket of water to a house fire".
The Greens leader then vowed to "pull every lever" possible during this term to prevent the opening of new coal and gas projects. That includes threatening to amend the government's budget to stop subsidies for fossil fuel companies.
He also wants to push the government to reform the scheme used to restrict emissions at heavy polluting sites - known as the "safeguards mechanism" - to effectively stop new coal and gas projects.
Labor plans to lower the emissions thresholds for the 215 facilities covered under the scheme, helping them to reach their own net zero by 2050 goals. No new sites would be covered under Labor's plan.
Asked on Wednesday if the government planned to cede to the Greens' wishes on the safeguard mechanism, Mr Albanese said: "No, in a word".
"The safeguards mechanism policy that we took to the election is the safeguards mechanism policy that we will implement absolutely, without question, without alteration," Mr Bowen added.
Mr Albanese also shot down suggestions that the government had agreed to include a so-called "climate trigger" in environmental protection laws, which would mean that greenhouse gas emissions from projects would be taken into account during the assessment process.
While Mr Bowen and other ministers were declaring definitively that the legislation would pass after the Greens' decision, the government does still need one more vote in the Senate.
One Nation's Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts and United Australia Party's Ralph Babet are certain to oppose the bill, leaving Senator Pocock and the two Jacqui Lambie Network members as the only realistic options.
Senator Pocock strongly supports stronger climate action and has described Labor's targets as a positive first step in ending the climate wars which have plagued Australian politics.
But The Canberra Times understands the former rugby star wants to hold further talks with the government as he seeks to get the best deal for Canberrans.
"It's great to see the government and the Greens have reached agreement on the Climate Change Bill 2022," Senator Pocock said.
"I've said from day one that while the community has made clear our desire for greater ambition, the priority is getting a target locked in and legislated.
"I have had some really constructive conversations with Minister Bowen and look forward to continuing those.
"As I said in my first speech ... we need to not just end, but win, the climate wars and this is a big step forward to achieving that."