TAB RACE DAY
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1st Race @ 12.25pm
*Track likely Good 4 and Rail True so fairly even or just off the pace for much of the day before a late trend wider
*Race 1 @ 12.25pm ALLSOPP SIGNS 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1200m) Min Weight 56kg; Weights raised 1kg & apprentices can claim:
We kick off a strong card with a competitive sprint for the three-year-olds. Armidale filly 1. VINAIGRETTE (Stirling Osland/Ben Looker, 58kg; $2.85 - $3.00) might be on her last chance with punters, but she's only missed a place once in her last five. Was strong late here behind a smart one last start coming from an awkward position. Looks well treated under this weight scale, and hard fit can finally break through.
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MAIN DANGERS: Improving Muswellbrook filly 3. Dancing Dollar was sound to the line resuming at Scone, although will need to slot in front a wide draw. Include Wyong gelding 5. Sapphires Son who was okay also first-up in that same race at Scone, and wasn't far off some promising sprinters last prep; while Scone filly 8. Confinement disappointed second-up at Mudgee, but can improve sharply here from a good trailing draw.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack:: VINAIGRETTE to Win
*Race 2 @ 1.05pm OFF THE TRACK NSW MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights & apprentices can claim:
Still with the maidens at set weights. Former Victorian mare 10. PEROXIDE BLONDE (Stephen Jones/Greg Ryan; 57kg) has been off the scene for a year, but has her first run for the Stephen Jones stable at Scone off two nice trials. Was competitive over longer trips last prep, and looks tuned up for her NSW debut.
*MAIN DANGERS: Liked the way local 3YO 1. Crackerjack Kenny hit the line from well back second-up at Grafton, although his back luck drawing wide gates continues.
Likely Tempo: Solid to Good
My Betting Attack: PEROXIDE BLONDE to Win
*Race 3 @ 1.40pm TAB.COM.AU MAIDEN HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Intriguing maiden. Still in his first prep, Newcastle 3YO gelding 1. ESSOESS (Mark Minervini/Aaron Bullock; 59kg) is the most talented runner coming off two fast-finishing efforts, although has to overcome a tough draw first time at this track. Trainer has applied the blinkers, and extra ground suits.
*MAIN DANGERS: Muswellbrook 3YO filly 13. Tariff Trump finds an easier maiden after being outclassed at Scone, and previous form reads well enough.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Solid
My Betting Attack: ESSOESS to Win
*Race 4 @ 2.20pm THE PARSEE CLASS 2 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Good quality race, and a few strong chances headed by progressive 3YO Newcastle gelding 2. TWO UP (David Atkins/Robert Thompson, 61kg; $4.00 - $4.15) just missed in the heavy at Port Macquarie before charging home from a mile back to win a similar race at Scone as a hot favourite. Has quickly paid the handicapper's price up to 61kg, but is promising, with a big motor, and will go on to win bigger races.
*MAIN DANGERS: Smart local filly 1. Cassy's Sister had no luck resuming from a wide draw at Moree when heavily backed, and she can bounce back at home from a better draw. Was scratched from last Saturday's Highway because of the heavy track, and last prep was good enough to take on Listed provincial company at only her fourth start. Newcastle filly 5. Cool Missile stuck on strong after leading at Taree, and while there's more depth here, she's made good progress in her first prep. Be shocked if the winner comes outside those three, but Newcastle mare 6. Ducale wasn't far off Two Up second-up in that same race, and Wyong 7YO 7. Texas Tycoon can improve sharply second-up off a long break and down in weight.
Likely Tempo: Good
My Betting Attack: TWO UP to Win; Quinella 1 and 2; & First Four 1,2/1,2,5/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6,7
*Race 5 @ 2.55pm GREAT NORTHERN CLASS 1 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Back to the scamper trip, and promising home track 3YO gelding 1. FARMER'S FRIEND (Cody Morgan/Mitchell Bell, 59kg; $5.00 - $5.50) only needs an even dose of luck resuming from the wide draw to be the one to beat. Should have won on debut at Scone before quickly making amends in dominant fashion running a record. Has had two quiet trials, and blinkers come off.
*MAIN DANGERS: Newcastle filly 3. Espresinno was okay first-up in a deeper race at home, and will find this easier from a better draw. Fellow Novacastrian, 2YO 6. Areya Tuchuzy landed a big betting move with a tough maiden win here at only his second start. Wyong 2YO filly 8. Rose Sauvage resumes off a handy trial, and won the Boot Prelude at Coonamble in autumn to cap her last prep. Stablemate 3YO to top selection 5. Time For Don resumed with a fighting front-running maiden win here, but this is a decent step up.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: FARMER'S FRIEND to Win and Box Trifecta 1,3,6,8
*Race 6 @ 3.35pm RAPID CLEAN CLASS 1 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Same grade, but out in distance for a wide open and very good betting affair. Improving 4YO Newcastle mare 5. STRATACHEVA (David Atkins/Greg Ryan, 58kg; $8.00 - $9.00) has been doing her best work late all prep without winning, and drops down here in grade. Will need to find cover from a wide draw, but a much stronger rider takes over, and she can charge over the top at good odds.
*MAIN DANGERS: Liked the way Scone 3YO 2. Contango controlled the race and careered away to win second-up at Muswellbrook, and the extra trip is right up his alley. Rival Scone filly 11. Stellar Blaze has loomed to win her last two when hard in the market, but just found a couple stronger over the final stages. This is as far as she wants, but hard fit after four runs this prep. Another Scone filly 3. Entreat fought hard for a deserved maiden win here after being challenged down the straight. That came after three straight seconds, and she couldn't be fitter. Newcastle 3YO 7. Reuben James was a dominant maiden winner three runs back before dropping out a long way at Scone this grade last start. Drawn better, and dropping back from the mile are plusses, but would need to be at his very best.
Likely Tempo: Solid
My Betting Attack: STRATACHEVA Each Way and Trifecta 2,5,11/2,3,5,7,11/2,3,5,7,11
*Race 7 @ 4.10pm SKY ACTIVE BM 58 HCP (1600m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
Most open race on the card, with a stack of chances. Capable Gosford 4YO gelding 4. CHARLIE'S LAW (Greg McFarlane/Aaron Bullock, 61.5kg; $8.50 - $9.50) hasn't done a lot in three runs back, but has had little luck when it's counted. Jumps sharply in weight, but this is a significant drop in quality, and drawn to get enough cover. Peaks here, and will be very strong late.
*MAIN DANGERS: Newcastle 6YO 3. Achi Baba has more to offer than his modest record suggests, and has found the line well enough in deeper races of late. Draws to get a good trail around midfield, and senior rider goes on. Consistent Quirindi 5YO 6. Bulletson bolted in a weaker arce at home two runs back before powering home to just miss this grade at Moree, but also facing a tough task from the outside barrier; while Scone 3YO 7. Shame Warned has a sound record at this track, and back to the mile suits from the inside draw.
Likely Tempo: Moderate to Solid
My Betting Attack: CHARLIE'S LAW Each Way and Trifecta 3,4,6/3,4,6/3,4,6,7
*Race 8 @ 4.50pm KOSCIUSZKO TICKETS ON SALE BM 66 HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg & apprentices can claim:
We close the meeting with a good competitive sprint. Talented 4YO Gosford gelding 1. LIBERTY SUN (Greg McFarlane/Aaron Bullock, 62.5kg; $3.85 - $4.00) only has to relax and use a handy draw to be the one to beat even under a big weight, resuming off two quiet trials. Has superior early speed, especially on firmer footing.
*MAIN DANGERS: Scone 3YO 2. Golden Avenger felt the pressure late resuming in a similar race at Mudgee, but the drop back to 1000m second-up is a plus. Home track filly and former Victorian 7. The First Of May powered home to miss by a whisker first-up in a BM 58 at Scone despite drifting in betting, although will need to be good taking on some handy ones here from a wide draw.
Likely Tempo: Good to Strong
My Betting Attack: LIBERTY SUN to Win
**My BEST EARLY BETS:
R4 2. TWO UP* Expect: $4.00 - $4.15; My Early Rating: $2.65
R8 1. LIBERTY SUN** Expect: $3.85 - $4.00; My Early Rating: $2.20
**My BEST EARLY VALUE:
R6 5. STRATACHEVA* Expect: $8.00 - $9.00; My Early Rating: $5.10
R7 4. CHARLIE'S LAW** Expect: $8.50 - $9.50; My Early Rating: $4.92
**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:
David Atkins**
Greg McFarlane*
Kris Lees*
Cody Morgan*
**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:
Aaron Bullock**
Robert Thompson**
Andrew Gibbons*
GOOD LUCK
@NeilEvansmail
TAMWORTH RACING
Next Meeting: Friday Aug 7, 2020