IT APPEARS likely Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) candidate Roy Butler will win the North West seat of Barwon.
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Retiring Nationals MP Kevin Humphries has held the seat since 2007 and his party has had an unbroken hold on the electorate since 1950.
The SFF party haven't declared victory in Barwon yet, but with less than half the vote counted there has been a 21 per cent swing to Mr Butler.
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Mr Butler had secured 33.48 per cent of the primary vote, narrowly ahead of Nationals candidate Andrew Schier (31.29 per cent) and Labor's entrant and Broken Hill mayor, Darriea Turley (19.73 per cent).
Mr Butler ran on key issues, including water and public health and jobs and better services for the regions.
He currently lives in Mendooran where he runs a cattle farm with his family.
The early count indicates the SFF party could claim three seats in the NSW lower house, including Barwon.
Incumbent Philip Donato extended his margin in the central west electorate of Orange, while Helen Dalton is on track to unseat Nationals MP Austin Evans in south-western based seat of Murray.