The government's proposed legislation targeting the troubles of Victoria's Country Fire Authority looks set to live or die based on the position that Pauline Hanson's One Nation takes.
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On Monday, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced amendments to the federal Fair Work Act that hinder "militant union" influence in the CFA by making any provisions undermining volunteers unlawful.
Crossbenchers Derryn Hinch and Bob Day have declared their support for the proposal and Nick Xenophon, with his three Senate votes, and David Leyonhjelm have expressed in-principle support for the position of volunteers.
The government has 30 seats in the Senate, meaning they need to secure a further nine votes to pass legislation. With Labor and the Greens opposed to the legislation, they are sitting on 32 to 36 votes, setting up the four One Nation senators as the key - or barrier - to success.
They are expected to vote together and have not announced a position yet, awaiting further briefings from Employment Minister Michaelia Cash and meetings with the CFA.
Senator Day told Fairfax Media on Tuesday that he is "very supportive of the government's position and volunteers" and Victorian senator Hinch said that the issue had "national consequences".
"I had talks with Michaelia Cash last week and during the campaign...and I'm pleased that the government is going to do this to try to thwart [Victorian Premier Daniel] Andrews," he told ABC radio.
At the end of July, Senator Xenophon wrote to CFA volunteers saying he strongly supported their role in the community and the "honourable and heroic work they do for our nation", committing to constructive and urgent action.
"I support moves to rectify the anomaly that has been identified as a result of the dispute that has occurred in Victoria with the Victorian government," he wrote.
The intractable dispute has featured in Victorian politics for months, damaging the Andrews Labor government and interfering with Opposition Leader Bill Shorten's campaigning in the state leading up the federal election.
Concerns from volunteers, CFA figures and the Liberal Party centre around the proposed Enterprise Bargaining Agreement, which they say threatens the role of volunteers and a union takeover.
The Prime Minister said he suspects Mr Andrews of having a "sinister purpose" in backing the EBA.
The United Firefighters Union says the agreement is about firefighter and community safety. The agreement is due to be tested by the Supreme Court next month.
with Richard Willingham
