BARNABY Joyce will need to win between 44 and 45 per cent of the primary vote in order to win Saturday’s federal election, a political expert has said.
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With five days to go until election day, the region’s most seasoned political commentators have no doubt the battle for New England will be a tough one, but an Armidale academic is predicting the underdog, Tony Windsor, will come out on top.
University of New England senior lecturer in politics Dr Tim Battin believes Mr Windsor will receive the “lion’s share” of preferences, with the final votes not determined by the party faithful, but the undecided voters in the electorate.
“I think it will be a tight race and would expect Tony Windsor to give it a real shock – I think he might be able to win the seat through preference flows,” Dr Battin said.
“The way I would characterise it is, Barnaby Joyce needs a primary vote of something like 44 or 45 per cent.
“He needs to get at least that much, because preference flows to Tony Windsor would be very strong.
“When you look at the way people supported Mr Windsor when he was last in, it was so strong that the National Party really didn’t build very much on its primary vote.”
Dr Battin was referring to figures from the 2007 and 2010 federal election – Mr Windsor’s primary vote in 2007 was 62 per cent, and he achieved a two-candidate preferred result of 74 per cent.
Similar figures were recorded in 2010, in which Mr Windsor’s primary vote was 63 per cent and his two-party preferred figure was 71.5 per cent.
The primary figures for the Nationals were 23 per cent and 25 per cent respectively.
“It’s true that in 2007 and 2010 there weren’t as high-profile National Party candidates (as Mr Joyce).
“But you’d have to take into account and recognise that Mr Joyce is going to do better than that,” Dr Battin said.
“He does need to have a primary vote of 44 per cent to have any kind of strong chance.
“The Labor Party will preference Tony Windsor, and so will the Greens.
“Most other candidates will preference Tony Windsor.
“The National Party would rather be electioneering elsewhere, in seats that are in trouble, but Mr Windsor has thrown sand into the cogs of the National Party machine and it’s upset them.
“I think it will come down to how much the candidates can draw on community support, the wider community support beyond the groups that are usually conventionally aligned with the candidates.
“A key statistic to watch in New England is the informal vote. For all the elections between 2001 and 2010, New England’s informal vote was significantly below the national average. In 2013, the informal vote in New England saw one of the biggest increases in the country, and, at 6 per cent, it was higher than the national average (5.9 per cent).
“I would expect that it is easier for an independent to engage with those voters who disengaged in 2013.”
Dr Battin said he understood neither CountryMinded’s David Mailler nor independent Rob Taber were recommending preference flows.
