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Tony Abbott may be personally unpopular among middle-ground voters but the group that broke from the ALP at the 2013 election is not coming back to Bill Shorten, with many regarding him as a ranting puppet obsessed with political point scoring, and lacking in charisma.
Exclusive focus group testing of the two leaders' standing among former Labor voters who switched to Tony Abbott in 2013 has found Mr Shorten is regarded with disdain among the very electors he must win back but who currently see him as unknown, wishy-washy, and unable to cut through.
The confronting findings are among those gleaned from focus groups convened for Fairfax Media by the experienced political market researcher, Tony Mitchelmore.
Using identical methodologies to those approved by the main parties, the groups met for two post-budget sessions in Melbourne and another two in Sydney, to gauge the mood of the section of the electorate regarded as central to the election hopes of both sides.
It found Mr Abbott continues to be regarded very poorly by swinging voters – even though all of them involved in the focus groups had backed him in 2013. They prefer either the former Liberal leader and now Communications Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.
But Mr Abbott, who has the distinction of having been elected while unpopular, enjoys a critical advantage over all of the alternatives, including Mr Shorten: incumbency.
According to Mr Mitchelmore, the main attribute voters want out of Canberra after the global financial crisis and the disastrous internal manoeuvrings that dogged the Labor years, is stability.
"If the question is, 'Who is your preferred leader out of Bishop, Turnbull, or Abbott?', then Abbott is a long way last," Mr Mitchelmore reported.
"[However] if the question is 'who do you want, Turnbull, Bishop, or stability?' stability wins."
That finding is a double-blow for Mr Shorten because it shows voters favour keeping Mr Abbott in place – even though he is not well liked – and because it stems from still-powerful voter associations between the Labor leader and the toxic rivalry of the Kevin Rudd/Julia Gillard years.
Describing the desire for stability as "running deep" in the electorate, he said it was clear from the discussions that voters remembered the "Labor dysfunction" and the tumultuous political times associated with its period in office.
Indeed, so traumatised were voters by what they saw that the attempted spill motion against Tony Abbott in February had the perverse effect among swing voters of reminding them of Labor's travails. Some greeted the Coalition government's internal ructions as a case of "here we go again," said the pollster.
"There is no greater emotional commodity that can be offered at the moment than stability, security, certainty," he said.
So strong are the memories of Labor, that they feed into the ongoing debt focus with voters recalling the $900 cash hand-outs in 2008-09.
But it is Mr Shorten's reputation specifically that must concern Labor strategists.
Mr Mitchelmore said the feedback on the Labor leader was "poor" and was characterised by a common theme of "never hear any solutions or policies".
Some described him as lurking in the shadows and as "playing the typical opposition game".
"It's just sort of an empty void," said one man whereas a woman in another session said "there's no charisma with Bill". Others described him using the terms "ranting", "wishy-washy" and "a puppet".
The findings also point to immediate and future strategic problems for the opposition, which has led in the opinion polls for more than 12 months and which according to most, remains ahead – albeit by a narrowing margin.
As Fairfax Media reported on Wednesday, the much softer 2015 budget has been well received by voters especially in comparison to the hard-cutting 2014 effort.
Mr Mitchelmore said that has exacerbated the problem for Labor because it can no longer rely on being a "small target" when there are fewer Liberal negatives to work with.
He said the challenge for Mr Shorten was to somehow "shore up" his profile to improve his personal standing, while also creating a reputation with voters that is "distinct and different from Rudd/Gilllard/Rudd".
