Emissions trading isn't dead. Thanks to Clive Palmer, it remains alive as an idea that will most likely strengthen over time as Bernie Fraser, of the Climate Change Authority, delivers three separate reports over 18 months - the final one just before the next election.
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As Fraser examines the evidence, he is likely to find that an emissions trading scheme is by far the most effective way to cut emissions at the lowest possible cost. That's what John Howard's special task force concluded in 2006 and it's what the Treasury advised the Coalition in its change of government documents in 2010.
He'll be able to examine whether the case has strengthened or weakened since then, examining it alongside the Coalition's "direct action" plan that will be operating at the time.
If direct action does less to cut emissions than did the carbon tax, and if it does it at a greater cost, that'll feed into Fraser's report.
If the United States, China and other big polluters are adopting trading schemes that, too, will feed into his report.
Fraser will also be able to iron out wrinkles in the Gillard model, producing a scheme right for 2017 and beyond.
The idea will be given momentum and authority - all the more so if direct action turns out to deliver less than promised.
Greens leader Christine Milne said Palmer had given direct action a lifeline. What he really did was put it on trial.
Peter Martin is economics editor of The Age.
Twitter: @1petermartin
