WHEN you go to Coles and see the sign “Driving down the prices” it states what the price was and the reduced price that you will pay for that particular item.

The price is always reduced –  and often by a significant amount.

The joint media release issued by Kevin Humphries and Kevin Anderson on July 10 doesn’t tell us what the price was, or what it will be driven down to.

We do know that the usage charge for water in the Peel Valley for 2014-15 is $45.56, paid for by both the irrigator and Tamworth Regional Council.

And we do know that if there is no water available to temporary trade to the Namoi then there will be no price reduction and usage charge prices will increase by 10 per cent per year.

So the question is, will there be any temporary trading from the Peel to the Namoi in the 2014-15 water year?

For temporary trading to take place from the Peel to the Namoi, there must be some water to trade. Currently both the Peel and Namoi irrigators have a zero water allocation for the 2014-15 water year. 

Now, if sometime during this water year it rains and Chaffey Dam gets sufficient run-off to allow the Peel’s irrigators to access their entitlement then this portion of their entitlement can then be temporary traded into the Namoi.

But there is a catch.

The Namoi Valley’s water users have a water saving and allocation system known as “continuous accounting”. 

The significance of this is that before there is any water available to cater for temporary trading this water year, all account balances will have to reach 100 per cent, plus carryover, from the 2013-14 water year. 

Kevin Humphries could change the Namoi’s water sharing plan to modify this initiative, but I doubt if he has the intestinal fortitude to take on a battle with the hardened warriors of the Namoi Valley irrigation industry given that he did not have the guts to attend our meeting on Wednesday and stare down two broken-down old irrigators and a council worker from the Peel Valley.

To achieve a 100 per cent allocation the Namoi catchment has to have a major rainfall event or two.

At least 350,000 million litres will have to flow into Keepit and or Split Rock for there to be any possibility of achieving temporary trade and “driving down” water prices in the Peel.

Still, to give Kevin and Kevin a fair go, significant temporary trade may at some time happen between the Peel and the Namoi. 

So how much water needs to be traded into the Namoi to hold the usage charge in the Peel at 2013-14 levels at $43.61? 

Answer: about 11,000 megalitres.

To reduce the Peel’s usage charge to that of the Namoi? 

Answer: 18,000 megalitres.

As you can see, bulk water pricing is a complex issue and cannot be put to bed by the glib media release from Kevin Humphries and Kevin Anderson.