Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce’s decision to challenge Tony Windsor in the lower house seat of New England could backfire, according to recent polling that shows Mr Windsor holding a strong lead four months before the election.
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A poll by the resources industry in the past fortnight shows Mr Windsor would win 49 per cent of the primary vote compared with 38 per cent for Senator Joyce.
Even though Senator Joyce has reduced Mr Windsor’s 2010 primary vote by 13 percentage points, the poll of 600 people suggests Mr Windsor may retain New England, meaning Opposition Leader Tony Abbott could lose a close confidant.
There is no immediate fallback option for Senator Joyce should he lose the agricultural seat, which runs from the Queensland border to the Liverpool Plains.
The Queensland Liberal-National Party is not expected to hold open his Senate vacancy pending the outcome of the election and there has been strong interest shown by others in filling his vacancy.
Senator Joyce, who grew up in the seat’s major city of Tamworth, has been telling colleagues his is an “all-or-nothing’’ gamble.
The resources industry polled the seat to gauge how real concern was about coal seam gas, water and coal mining.
The Lock The Gate and environmental campaigns have seen protests around the seat against the expansion of coal and coal seam gas in the region, particularly in the Liverpool Plains.
Labor has accepted amendments by Mr Windsor to the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity and Conservation Act to protect water from unintended and negligent impacts of coal and coal seam gas mining.
The resources sector has argued that the change to the law, which has passed the lower house and is being considered by the Senate, would mean more regulation and expense for an industry struggling with higher labour costs and regulation.
The polling ranked issues in New England and views across Queensland and NSW.
In New England, jobs and employment ranked first, followed by the economy and finance, cost of living, the economy and budget, and health end education.
In the list of 21 issues
water, coal seam gas and resources did not rank, the research showed.
A broader survey across NSW and Queensland found more than 50 per cent of people felt that economic issues, including jobs and the cost of living, were the most serious problems.
Fewer than 3 per cent of people said gas and resources were top of mind.
A sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area, showed that Labor would at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result.
That means every Labor seat in western Sydney would be won by the Coalition.
