However, Country Labor candidate Denise McHugh sees herself as the dark horse in the campaign.

At a political forum

in Tamworth on Monday

night, four of the five

candidates in attendance were given an opportunity to comment on the current political climate.

Mr Draper said in his view there were only two serious contenders.

"Without any disrespect to Denise or Neville, this is very much a two-horse race in my opinion," he said.

The Nationals' candidate, Kevin Anderson, was not so sure.

"All candidates should be afforded the same chance and at this stage there are five candidates in the race," Mr Anderson said.

He has, however, joined the incumbent in choosing not to seek preferences.

"I think we should engage

in a campaign where you

just vote one," Mr Anderson said.

"That's the best part of this democracy, you can just put a one in the box."

Election analyst Antony Green says Tamworth is

"probably the Independent-held seat that The Nationals have the best chance of

recovering".

Mr Draper holds the seat by an adjusted margin of 1.9 per cent on the basis of the 2003 election.

Despite the decision by both major contenders to encourage "vote one", preferences may play a significant role in determining the elected representative. Christian Democratic Party candidate Neville Mammen and Denise McHugh from Country Labor have both announced they will unveil

from page 1

their preference choices next week.

Ms McHugh said she should not be dismissed.

She said she was experiencing a "groundswell of public support" and "without legitimate local polling" she should not be ruled out of contention.

"It is very interesting that even though I am the dark horse, I am the representative of the party favourite overall," she said.

The Labor Party has never held the seat of Tamworth and Mr Draper believes the Country Labor candidate is facing an uphill battle.